Russia has improved its position in the logistics rating
Russia’s position as a logistics hub among developing countries has somewhat strengthened, follows from the 2020 Agility Emerging Markets Logistics Index. The country took 13th place in the ranking, rising one position. The position in the rating could be higher in terms of prospects for domestic and international logistics, but it is spoiled by the conditions for doing business. Air cargo from the EU to Russia, as well as sea freight between Russia and Europe, are growing rapidly. But the authors of the rating warn: in 2020, global logistics will face a recession amid a slowdown in world trade, trade wars and political instability.
In 2020, the global logistics market expects a recession, follows from the 2020 Agility Emerging Markets Logistics Index. The main factor is the trade war between China and the United States, during which trade restrictions affected Chinese imports with a total value of $ 360 billion and US $ 110 billion. In 2019, the volume of air and sea container traffic between the countries fell by 10.9% and 11.8% respectively. Among other reasons for pessimism, the authors of the rating include a reduction in world trade turnover, an increase in economic protectionism and political instability. At the same time, the last factor, usually seriously affecting the logistics of developing countries, did not play a decisive role last year: most countries where there was political turbulence did not lose their positions in the ranking, and Egypt even climbed to six places at once.
The rating consists of three parameters – the prospects of internal logistics, international logistics and the conditions for doing business in the country. The six leaders have not changed since last year: China is still in the first place, and India is in the second. Followed by the UAE, Indonesia, Malaysia and Saudi Arabia. Mexico dropped one step, losing seventh to Qatar, while Thailand rose two places at once, moving Turkey from ninth place and squeezing Vietnam out of the top ten. However, according to the authors of the rating, Vietnam is one of the few countries that can benefit from a trade war between China and the United States (according to preliminary results of 2019, the import of Vietnamese goods into the United States by air increased by 23%, by sea – by 25%).
Russia climbed one place in the ranking and took 13th place in terms of aggregate indicators. The position could have been higher – according to the prospects of domestic and international logistics, the country took 11th and 10th places, respectively, but the situation was spoiled by the conditions for doing business (19th place). Russia also retained its presence in the ranking of international logistics markets with the greatest potential, but fell out of the top ten, dropping to four positions at once and taking 11th place.
At the end of 2019, the EU – Russia air cargo route ranked tenth in terms of growth, increasing volumes from 12.7 thousand tons in 2018 to 13.6 thousand tons in 2019. Marine – in 11th place with an increase of 15.6%, to 39.8 million tons. However, the EU-Ukraine route surpassed it in growth (by 17.7%, up to 34.7 million tons). The volume of shipping in the opposite direction, from Russia to the EU, is in eighth place in terms of growth, the volume increased from 4.4 million to 5.3 million tons (19.7%). At the same time, if in the Russian direction freight traffic from the EU is growing year after year (an increase by 2012 – 56%), then the oncoming traffic – falls by an average of 6.4% per year and has not yet restored the volumes of 2012, lagging by 37% .
An interlocutor of Kommersant in one of the cargo airlines says that a significant part of the cargo transported from Russia to the EU by air is in transit from Asian countries. Part of the cargo from Europe in transit goes to the CIS. “Without knowing how much of the cargo is cleared at airports, it is difficult to understand how much of this cargo remains on the territory of the Russian Federation,” he notes.
Nadezhda Malysheva from PortNews notes that mineral fertilizers, timber, and oil cargo were shipped from Russia to the EU in a larger volume than a year earlier. Containers came to Russia both with consumer goods and with components for production.
“However, in terms of containerized cargo flow, not knowing the methodology for calculating this rating, it can be assumed that part of this cargo may be of Asian origin with transshipment (possibly reloading) in European hubs (such as Rotterdam) to feeder lines to Russian Baltic ports,” – the expert notes.